The results
Our figures, when they exist.
This page is empty on purpose, and we would rather it were than fill it with projections. Here will go the real results of Volcano's startups and their comparison with the sector average, as soon as there are closed deals to report.
The reason
Why it is empty, and why we publish it empty anyway.
Across the whole site we use the sector distribution as a reference: the map of risk and reward draws the industry curve, with 65% of deals below ×1. That curve is not ours, and we say so there: it is the sector's data, not a statistic on Volcano's startups.
We could draw a curve of our own today. It would be an invention, because there are not enough closed deals behind it to support it, and an optimistic curve with no track record is exactly what this site has set out not to do. We prefer an empty page with the structure on display: it says what we are going to measure and what we are going to compare ourselves against, and leaves the gap where the numbers will go.
And if you think the table is missing indicators, or that one of those we have chosen is not the one that really matters, tell us. The mould is not closed, and whoever invests knows what they want to look at better than whoever builds the table.
It also has a useful consequence for you: when this page has content, you will be able to check whether what we announce on the rest of the site resembles what happened. Publishing the mould before the data is the simplest way of making sure nobody can change the mould afterwards.
The mould
What we will publish, exactly.
The comparison will be made against the reference class, which is how any specific case is placed within a known distribution: first the sector distribution, then our position within it. The reasoning is in informing yourself by levels.
| Indicator | Sector average | Volcano |
|---|---|---|
| Startups incorporated | n/a | pending |
| Survival at 3 and at 5 years | sector data | pending |
| Deals below ×1 | 65% | pending |
| Deals above ×5 | ~10% | pending |
| Euros mobilised per private euro | n/a | pending |
| Projects with a reasoned report obtained | n/a | pending |
| Average time from stage 01 to incorporation | n/a | pending |
The sector figures come from the Correlation Ventures distribution of outcomes cited in the map. The Volcano columns will be filled in with closed and verifiable deals, not with internal estimates.
In the meantime
What you can verify today.
None of the above means there is nothing to look at. Today you can check the method step by step, the tax architecture with its regulatory references, the thirteen phases of the path and the TRL pyramid on which decisions are made, and the simulations, which are open scenarios and not projections: you can move the assumptions and see what changes. What you cannot verify yet is the track record, and that is why this page exists before we have one.
Would you rather wait for the numbers?
That is a legitimate position. It is worth reading how much information is enough to decide first.
John F. Kennedy, 1962