The development path diagram of a Volcano project: thirteen phases, from the capture of the problem to liquidity, with the seven lines that run over them. Here it lives with its version in words, phase by phase and figure by figure, for those who read without a screen and for those who want the numbers in a table. Timings are indicative and vary from project to project.
This diagram represents the typical development path of a project, and of a startup, at Volcano: thirteen phases, from the capture of the problem to liquidity. Timings are indicative and vary from project to project. Click on the diagram to enlarge it and see the seven lines that run over the phases, stretch by stretch: technical maturity (TRL), commercial maturity (CRL) with the product milestones, the seven financing rounds, cost, value, the value multiple and typical funding. Each stretch leads to the page that explains it.
Click on the diagram to enlarge it ⤢ · The dot that travels the phases follows the indicative timeline; the dashed marks are the seven decision gates (D1–D7), which close phases F1 to F7; the diagram represents one project, and if the startup is new and has a single project, the project is the startup. Indicative figures: European medians and public proxies, with the anchors and their sources on the linked pages; the multiples are ratios of those medians, not a promise; the funding bands are typical, not exclusive.
In words
The thirteen phases, one by one.
Each phase closes a question; with a yes the gate is crossed and the next phase arrives with the previous risk already paid. For each one: the question that closes it, what proves it, and the note on who guides it, its TRL and its typical funding. The full development, with what is done, delivered and exited, is in the path.
F1 · Capture of the problem
Has a problem entered the network, brought by whoever suffers it?
Problem formulated by its bearer, and entry channel identified: whoever suffers it tells the network, through a client, the consultancy or an ally.
What is the process where the problem lives like, and is it worth solving?
The current process, broken down into its steps. If a solution already exists, it is checked piece by piece that it is ineffective or inefficient. The exact point of pain. Frequency, cost and willingness to pay. Reliability of the source.
Are there plausible routes, and which one deserves the concept?
Alternatives compared; reasoned choice.
Led by: Volcano with the nascent startup · TRL 1–2 · Typical funding: Tax Lease; grants; FFF; angels.
F4 · Concept
Has the idea stopped being a hypothesis?
An idea is a hypothesis; the concept is the idea turned into a verified mechanism, even if only theoretically. Theoretical verification is full science: physics has thought experiments, and with them Einstein changed our view of the world. Evidence: the mechanism described, the physical and economic limits checked on paper, the risks named. With the concept formulated (TRL 2) the memoria técnica is drafted, and with it the business plan: the dossier with which the project presents itself to funding.
Led by: the startup with Volcano · TRL 2 · Typical funding: Tax Lease; grants; angels.
F5 · Proof of concept
Does the central mechanism work?
The technological feasibility of the concept demonstrated with real instruments, mechanical, hardware and software, under controlled conditions and reproducibly.
Led by: the startup · TRL 3–4 · Typical funding: Tax Lease; grants; angels.
F6 · Prototype
Does the integrated system work in a relevant environment?
Prototype operating outside the laboratory.
Led by: the startup · TRL 5–6 · Typical funding: Tax Lease; angels; convertible note; pre-seed.
F7 · MVP
Does the minimum viable product hold up in front of real users?
Real use, structured feedback, observed abandonment.
Led by: the startup · TRL 7–8 · Typical funding: Tax Lease; convertible note; seed.
F8 · Traction
Does somebody pay, repeat, and across several customers with a recognisable channel?
Initial recurring revenue on the minimum sellable version; channel identified; acquisition cost measured.
Led by: the startup · CRL rising · Typical funding: Seed / Series A; revenue-based.
F9 · Product-market fit
Do retention and unit economics work at small scale?
Cohorts that stay; positive unit margin; observable organic growth.
Led by: the startup · CRL rising · Typical funding: Series A.
F10 · Profitable growth
As it grows, does the unit margin hold?
Growth does not buy revenue at a loss: the unit metrics hold as the customers multiply, and the product is by now the minimum marketable product (MMP), ready for the broad market.
Led by: the startup · CRL rising · Typical funding: Series A/B; venture debt.
F11 · Profitability
Do the solution's flows cover the structure?
Operating break-even reached: the profit on the solution.
Led by: the startup · CRL high · Typical funding: Bank debt; growth.
F12 · Scale
Does the model hold up under multiplication: operations, channels, geographies?
Expansion without breaking margins or organisation. Internationalisation is a case of this phase, not a separate phase.
Led by: the startup · CRL high · Typical funding: Growth equity; project finance.
F13 · Liquidity
Can whoever invested get out?
Sale, secondary or flotation, which is only the rarest case. The profit belongs to the company; the liquidity, to the investor: they can be years apart.
Guide: the startup and its partners · TRL: completed · Typical funding: M&A; secondary; markets.
In figures
The seven lines, phase by phase.
The table is generated from the same data used to draw the diagram. For each phase: the TRL and CRL reached on closing it; the project's cumulative cost (R&D up to F8, market after); the startup's median value on closing it, with European medians and public proxies, whose anchors are in value and cost; the remaining risk, on an indicative scale; and typical funding, in typical, non-exclusive bands, whose full picture is in funding by phase. The value multiple between two phases is the ratio of their median values, among survivors and without dilution: it is not the return per euro invested, which is given by the venture distribution in the risk map; how to read it, in the diagram's card.
Phase
Macro-phase
TRL at close
CRL at close
Cumulative cost of the project
Median value at close
Remaining risk
Typical funding
F1 · Capture
Discovery
none yet
1 · hypothesis
≈ 0.12 M€
≈ 0.1 M€
≈ 95%
Volcano and partners; visionary angels
F2 · Analysis
Discovery
none yet
1 · hypothesis
≈ 0.22 M€
≈ 0.2 M€
≈ 95%
Volcano and partners; visionary angels
F3 · Ideation
R&D
1
2 · market identified
≈ 0.35 M€
≈ 1.5 M€
≈ 85%
Tax Lease; grants; FFF; angels
F4 · Concept
R&D
2
2 · market identified
≈ 0.55 M€
≈ 2.6 M€
≈ 72%
Tax Lease; grants; angels
F5 · Proof
R&D
4
3 · value proposition
≈ 0.75 M€
≈ 4 M€
≈ 60%
Tax Lease; grants; angels
F6 · Prototype
R&D
6
3 · value proposition
≈ 1.05 M€
≈ 5.6 M€
≈ 45%
Tax Lease; angels; convertible; pre-seed
F7 · MVP
R&D
8
4 · model tested
≈ 1.45 M€
≈ 12 M€
≈ 30%
Tax Lease; convertible; seed
F8 · Traction
Market
9
5 · pilot sales
≈ 1.85 M€
≈ 22 M€
≈ 20%
Seed / Series A; revenue-based
F9 · Fit
Market
9
7 · unit economics
≈ 2.2 M€
≈ 27 M€
≈ 14%
Series A
F10 · Growth
Market
9
7 · unit economics
≈ 2.6 M€
≈ 33 M€
≈ 8%
Series A/B; venture debt
F11 · Profitability
Market
9
8 · replicated
≈ 2.9 M€
≈ 38 M€
≈ 8%
Bank debt; growth
F12 · Scale
Scale
9
8 · replicated
≈ 3.1 M€
≈ 42 M€
≈ 5%
Growth equity; project finance
F13 · Liquidity
Scale
9
9 · bankable
≈ 3.2 M€
≈ 45 M€
≈ 5%
M&A; secondary; markets
Click on the diagram to enlarge it ⤢ · The dot that travels the phases follows the indicative timeline; the dashed marks are the seven decision gates (D1–D7), which close phases F1 to F7; the diagram represents one project, and if the startup is new and has a single project, the project is the startup. Indicative figures: European medians and public proxies, with the anchors and their sources on the linked pages; the multiples are ratios of those medians, not a promise; the funding bands are typical, not exclusive.
The gates
The seven decision gates.
The first seven phases end at a gate: the question whose answer decides whether to continue, repeat the phase or stop. Without a yes, the phase is repeated until the evidence arrives. The seven decisions, developed, in the path.
D1 closes F1: Has a problem entered the network, brought by whoever suffers it?
D2 closes F2: What is the process where the problem lives like, and is it worth solving?
D3 closes F3: Are there plausible routes, and which one deserves the concept?
D4 closes F4: Has the idea stopped being a hypothesis?
D5 closes F5: Does the central mechanism work?
D6 closes F6: Does the integrated system work in a relevant environment?
D7 closes F7: Does the minimum viable product hold up in front of real users?
Frequently asked questions
Frequently asked questions
What does the development path diagram of a Volcano project represent?
The typical path of a project, and of the startup that takes it to market, in thirteen phases and four macro-phases: discovery (F1 and F2), R&D (F3 to F7), market (F8 to F11) and scale (F12 and F13). Over the phases run seven lines: technical maturity (TRL), commercial maturity (CRL), the seven financing rounds, cumulative cost, median value, the value multiple and typical funding. It is a reference model, not a calendar: timings vary from project to project.
Where do the figures in the table come from?
From the same sources as the linked pages: European medians and public proxies for value and cost (value and cost), NASA's TRL scale (the TRL pyramid), the CRL levels (the CRL ladder) and the funding bands (funding by phase). The figures are indicative; the multiples are ratios of medians, not a promise; and the remaining risk is an indicative scale that falls stretch by stretch.
Why do the table and the diagram say the same thing?
Because they are born from the same file: the table is generated from the data with which the diagram is drawn, so they cannot diverge. If the diagram changes, the table changes with it.
Press Esc or "Close" to exit. On a touch screen: tap a stretch to read its card, and tap it again to go to its page.
F1 · Capture of the problemHas a problem entered the network, brought by whoever suffers it?Problem formulated by its bearer, and entry channel identified: whoever suffers it tells the network, through a client, the consultancy or an ally.Guide: Volcano · TRL: none yet · Typical funding: Volcano and partners; visionary angels.F2 · Analysis of the problemWhat is the process where the problem lives like, and is it worth solving?The current process, broken down into its steps. If a solution already exists, it is checked piece by piece that it is ineffective or inefficient. The exact point of pain. Frequency, cost and willingness to pay. Reliability of the source.Guide: Volcano · TRL: none yet · Typical funding: Volcano and partners; visionary angels.F3 · IdeationAre there plausible routes, and which one deserves the concept?Alternatives compared; reasoned choice.Led by: Volcano with the nascent startup · TRL 1–2 · Typical funding: Tax Lease; grants; FFF; angels.F4 · ConceptHas the idea stopped being a hypothesis?An idea is a hypothesis; the concept is the idea turned into a verified mechanism, even if only theoretically. Theoretical verification is full science: physics has thought experiments, and with them Einstein changed our view of the world. Evidence: the mechanism described, the physical and economic limits checked on paper, the risks named. With the concept formulated (TRL 2) the memoria técnica is drafted, and with it the business plan: the dossier with which the project presents itself to funding.Led by: the startup with Volcano · TRL 2 · Typical funding: Tax Lease; grants; angels.F5 · Proof of conceptDoes the central mechanism work?The technological feasibility of the concept demonstrated with real instruments, mechanical, hardware and software, under controlled conditions and reproducibly.Led by: the startup · TRL 3–4 · Typical funding: Tax Lease; grants; angels.F6 · PrototypeDoes the integrated system work in a relevant environment?Prototype operating outside the laboratory.Led by: the startup · TRL 5–6 · Typical funding: Tax Lease; angels; convertible note; pre-seed.F7 · MVPDoes the minimum viable product hold up in front of real users?Real use, structured feedback, observed abandonment.Led by: the startup · TRL 7–8 · Typical funding: Tax Lease; convertible note; seed.F8 · TractionDoes somebody pay, repeat, and across several customers with a recognisable channel?Initial recurring revenue on the minimum sellable version; channel identified; acquisition cost measured.Led by: the startup · CRL rising · Typical funding: Seed / Series A; revenue-based.F9 · Product-market fitDo retention and unit economics work at small scale?Cohorts that stay; positive unit margin; observable organic growth.Led by: the startup · CRL rising · Typical funding: Series A.F10 · Profitable growthAs it grows, does the unit margin hold?Growth does not buy revenue at a loss: the unit metrics hold as the customers multiply, and the product is by now the minimum marketable product (MMP), ready for the broad market.Led by: the startup · CRL rising · Typical funding: Series A/B; venture debt.F11 · ProfitabilityDo the solution's flows cover the structure?Operating break-even reached: the profit on the solution.Led by: the startup · CRL high · Typical funding: Bank debt; growth.F12 · ScaleDoes the model hold up under multiplication: operations, channels, geographies?Expansion without breaking margins or organisation. Internationalisation is a case of this phase, not a separate phase.Led by: the startup · CRL high · Typical funding: Growth equity; project finance.F13 · LiquidityCan whoever invested get out?Sale, secondary or flotation, which is only the rarest case. The profit belongs to the company; the liquidity, to the investor: they can be years apart.Guide: the startup and its partners · TRL: completed · Typical funding: M&A; secondary; markets.Discovery (F1–F2)The front end of innovation (Koen): capturing and analysing the problem before formal R&D. The Frascati Manual leaves it outside R&D, and successful projects invest here around twice as much.R&D (F3–F7)Formal R&D in the Frascati sense: from ideation to the MVP, with TRL in command.Market (F8–F11)The CRL takes command: traction, adjustment, profitable growth, profitability.Scale (F12–F13)The multiplication of the model, all the way to liquidity.D1 · the gate that closes F1Has a problem entered the network, brought by the one who suffers it? With the yes, the next phase arrives with the previous risk already paid; without the yes, the phase repeats until the evidence arrives.D2 · the gate that closes F2What is the process where the problem lives, and is it worth solving? With the yes, the next phase arrives with the previous risk already paid; without the yes, the phase repeats until the evidence arrives.D3 · the gate that closes F3Are there plausible paths, and which one deserves the concept? With the yes, the next phase arrives with the previous risk already paid; without the yes, the phase repeats until the evidence arrives.D4 · the gate that closes F4Has the idea stopped being a hypothesis? With the yes, the next phase arrives with the previous risk already paid; without the yes, the phase repeats until the evidence arrives.D5 · the gate that closes F5Does the core mechanism work? With the yes, the next phase arrives with the previous risk already paid; without the yes, the phase repeats until the evidence arrives. What the market teaches can send the product back: that is the pivot, part of the method.D6 · the gate that closes F6Does the integrated system work in a relevant environment? With the yes, the next phase arrives with the previous risk already paid; without the yes, the phase repeats until the evidence arrives. What the market teaches can send the product back: that is the pivot, part of the method.D7 · the gate that closes F7Does the minimum viable product hold up before real users? With the yes, the next phase arrives with the previous risk already paid; without the yes, the phase repeats until the evidence arrives. What the market teaches can send the product back: that is the pivot, part of the method.TRL 1Basic principles observed. The base science exists and is published; nobody has built anything yet.TRL 2Technology concept formulated. The possible practical application is described; everything is still on paper.TRL 3Experimental proof of concept. A laboratory experiment shows the critical function is possible.TRL 4Validation in the laboratory. The integrated components work together under controlled conditions.TRL 5Validation in a relevant environment. The whole works under conditions that resemble the real ones.TRL 6Demonstration in a relevant environment. A complete prototype demonstrates performance close to the real thing.TRL 7Demonstration in an operational environment. The prototype works where the product will live, with real users and conditions.TRL 8Complete and qualified system. The product is finished, tested and certified: ready to be produced.TRL 9System proven in the real environment. Real, continued operation: the technology is no longer the risk.CRL 1 · hypothesisThere is a verified problem and a hypothesis of who would pay to solve it. The capture proves it: the bearer exists and the pain is paid for every day.CRL 2 · market identifiedThe analysis names the concrete market and application. The decomposed process and the convenience screening prove it.CRL 3 · value propositionThere is a value proposition articulated against the alternatives. The first conversations with real counterparts prove it.CRL 4 · model testedThe business model is sketched and tested with potential customers. Interviews and letters of interest prove it; smoke tests and concierge bring cheap evidence.CRL 5 · pilot salesSomeone pays for the first time. Pilot sales or signed letters of intent prove it.CRL 6 · revenueRevenue repeats under market conditions. Recurring invoicing outside the pilot proves it.CRL 7 · unit economicsEach unit sold leaves margin. Positive unit economics at small scale prove it.CRL 8 · replicatedThe model works beyond the first segment. Replication in new segments or territories proves it.CRL 9 · bankableCommercial risk is ordinary. Stable revenue that a bank agrees to finance proves it.The techniquesSmoke test and Concierge: commercial evidence almost without spending TRL.MVPThe smallest product a real user can try.EVP / MLPThe MVP's evolutions: delighting and retaining the first users.MMPThe smallest product a customer can buy; open market.Product-market fitRetention and unit economics that hold: demand pulls on its own.Round 0 · Discovery · F1–F2Enters at the start of F1; completes on completing F2, when its gate is crossed: the note subscribed in this round converts at that moment. CRL 1 to 2 · no TRL. Cost to finance on the median curve ≈ 0.22 M€; multiple between medians ×2 at close · ×450 to F13 (survivors, no dilution). Typical instruments: Volcano and partners; visionary angels. All seven rounds, on their page.Round 1 · Concept and proof · F3–F5Enters at the start of F3; completes on completing F5, when its gate is crossed: the note subscribed in this round converts at that moment. CRL 2 to 3 · TRL 1 to 4. Cost to finance on the median curve ≈ 0.53 M€; multiple between medians ×20 at close · ×225 to F13 (survivors, no dilution). Typical instruments: Tax Lease; grants; FFF; angels; convertible note. All seven rounds, on their page.Round 2 · Prototype and MVP · F6–F7Enters at the start of F6; completes on completing F7, when its gate is crossed: the note subscribed in this round converts at that moment. CRL 4 · TRL 5 to 8 · the IP arrives. Cost to finance on the median curve ≈ 0.70 M€; multiple between medians ×3 at close · ×11 to F13 (survivors, no dilution). Typical instruments: Tax Lease; angels; convertible note; pre-seed and seed. All seven rounds, on their page.Round 3 · Traction · F8Enters at the start of F8; completes on completing F8, when its gate is crossed: the note subscribed in this round converts at that moment. CRL 5 · TRL 9. Cost to finance on the median curve ≈ 0.40 M€; multiple between medians ×1.8 at close · ×3.8 to F13 (survivors, no dilution). Typical instruments: Seed / Series A; revenue-based. All seven rounds, on their page.Round 4 · Fit and revenue · F9Enters at the start of F9; completes on completing F9, when its gate is crossed: the note subscribed in this round converts at that moment. CRL 6 to 7. Cost to finance on the median curve ≈ 0.35 M€; multiple between medians ×1.2 at close · ×2 to F13 (survivors, no dilution). Typical instruments: Series A. All seven rounds, on their page.Round 5 · Replication and profitability · F10–F11Enters at the start of F10; completes on completing F11, when its gate is crossed: the note subscribed in this round converts at that moment. CRL 8. Cost to finance on the median curve ≈ 0.70 M€; multiple between medians ×1.4 at close · ×1.7 to F13 (survivors, no dilution). Typical instruments: Series A/B; venture debt; bank debt; growth. All seven rounds, on their page.Round 6 · Scale · F12–F13Enters at the start of F12; completes on completing F13, when its gate is crossed: the note subscribed in this round converts at that moment. CRL 9. Cost to finance on the median curve ≈ 0.30 M€; multiple between medians ×1.2 at close · ×1.2 to F13 (survivors, no dilution). Typical instruments: Growth equity; project finance; M&A; secondary. All seven rounds, on their page.F1 · accumulated cost≈ 0.12 M€ at the close of the capture, according to the published curve. It is discovery, not R&D: the front end of innovation (Koen), which Frascati leaves outside formal R&D.F2 · accumulated cost≈ 0.22 M€ at the close of the analysis: the full discovery costs at least 0.2 M€ before R&D, and successful projects invest here around twice as much.Accumulated cost at the close of TRL 1≈ 0.35 M€ according to the curve published in value and cost (interpolation by phase); the prior discovery costs at least 0.2 M€ and is not R&D.Accumulated cost at the close of TRL 2≈ 0.55 M€ according to the curve published in value and cost (interpolation by phase); the prior discovery costs at least 0.2 M€ and is not R&D.Accumulated cost at the close of TRL 3≈ 0.65 M€ according to the curve published in value and cost (interpolation by phase); the prior discovery costs at least 0.2 M€ and is not R&D.Accumulated cost at the close of TRL 4≈ 0.75 M€ according to the curve published in value and cost (interpolation by phase); the prior discovery costs at least 0.2 M€ and is not R&D.Accumulated cost at the close of TRL 5≈ 0.9 M€ according to the curve published in value and cost (interpolation by phase); the prior discovery costs at least 0.2 M€ and is not R&D.Accumulated cost at the close of TRL 6≈ 1.05 M€ according to the curve published in value and cost (interpolation by phase); the prior discovery costs at least 0.2 M€ and is not R&D.Accumulated cost at the close of TRL 7≈ 1.25 M€ according to the curve published in value and cost (interpolation by phase); the prior discovery costs at least 0.2 M€ and is not R&D.Accumulated cost at the close of TRL 8≈ 1.45 M€ according to the curve published in value and cost (interpolation by phase); the prior discovery costs at least 0.2 M€ and is not R&D.Accumulated cost at the close of TRL 9≈ 1.85 M€ according to the curve published in value and cost (interpolation by phase); the prior discovery costs at least 0.2 M€ and is not R&D.F9 · cumulative cost of the project≈ 2.2 M€ at the close of F9, according to the curve published in value and cost. No longer R&D: it is industrialisation, market and scale, which the curve keeps counting; the R&D grant funding does not cover it.F10 · cumulative cost of the project≈ 2.6 M€ at the close of F10, according to the curve published in value and cost. No longer R&D: it is industrialisation, market and scale, which the curve keeps counting; the R&D grant funding does not cover it.F11 · cumulative cost of the project≈ 2.9 M€ at the close of F11, according to the curve published in value and cost. No longer R&D: it is industrialisation, market and scale, which the curve keeps counting; the R&D grant funding does not cover it.F12 · cumulative cost of the project≈ 3.1 M€ at the close of F12, according to the curve published in value and cost. No longer R&D: it is industrialisation, market and scale, which the curve keeps counting; the R&D grant funding does not cover it.F13 · cumulative cost of the project≈ 3.2 M€ at the close of F13, according to the curve published in value and cost. No longer R&D: it is industrialisation, market and scale, which the curve keeps counting; the R&D grant funding does not cover it.Value at the close of F1≈ 0.1 M€ median. Initial value with the Berkus method: the idea, the team, the relationships and the verified problem are worth something before revenue; provisional figure within the 0.2–1 M€ range.Value at the close of F2≈ 0.2 M€ median. Initial value with the Berkus method: the idea, the team, the relationships and the verified problem are worth something before revenue; provisional figure within the 0.2–1 M€ range.Value at the close of F3≈ 1.5 M€ median. European median of the curve published in value and cost; the chart's band runs from ×0.45 to ×1.45, and the great outcomes are worth far more (the high tail, in the risk map).Value at the close of F4≈ 2.6 M€ median. European median of the curve published in value and cost; the chart's band runs from ×0.45 to ×1.45, and the great outcomes are worth far more (the high tail, in the risk map).Value at the close of F5≈ 4 M€ median. European median of the curve published in value and cost; the chart's band runs from ×0.45 to ×1.45, and the great outcomes are worth far more (the high tail, in the risk map).Value at the close of F6≈ 5.6 M€ median. European median of the curve published in value and cost; the chart's band runs from ×0.45 to ×1.45, and the great outcomes are worth far more (the high tail, in the risk map).Value at the close of F7≈ 12 M€ median. European median of the curve published in value and cost; the chart's band runs from ×0.45 to ×1.45, and the great outcomes are worth far more (the high tail, in the risk map).Value at the close of F8≈ 22 M€ median. European median of the curve published in value and cost; the chart's band runs from ×0.45 to ×1.45, and the great outcomes are worth far more (the high tail, in the risk map).Value at the close of F9≈ 27 M€ median. European median of the curve published in value and cost; the chart's band runs from ×0.45 to ×1.45, and the great outcomes are worth far more (the high tail, in the risk map).Value at the close of F10≈ 33 M€ median. European median of the curve published in value and cost; the chart's band runs from ×0.45 to ×1.45, and the great outcomes are worth far more (the high tail, in the risk map).Value at the close of F11≈ 38 M€ median. European median of the curve published in value and cost; the chart's band runs from ×0.45 to ×1.45, and the great outcomes are worth far more (the high tail, in the risk map).Value at the close of F12≈ 42 M€ median. European median of the curve published in value and cost; the chart's band runs from ×0.45 to ×1.45, and the great outcomes are worth far more (the high tail, in the risk map).Value at the close of F13≈ 45 M€ median. European median of the curve published in value and cost; the chart's band runs from ×0.45 to ×1.45, and the great outcomes are worth far more (the high tail, in the risk map).Remaining risk · stretch F1–F2≈ 95% residual risk, indicative: the scale drops stretch by stretch as technical and commercial evidence accumulates. The full distribution (and the prize's high tail) lives in the risk map.Remaining risk · stretch F3–F3≈ 85% residual risk, indicative: the scale drops stretch by stretch as technical and commercial evidence accumulates. The full distribution (and the prize's high tail) lives in the risk map.Remaining risk · stretch F4–F4≈ 72% residual risk, indicative: the scale drops stretch by stretch as technical and commercial evidence accumulates. The full distribution (and the prize's high tail) lives in the risk map.Remaining risk · stretch F5–F5≈ 60% residual risk, indicative: the scale drops stretch by stretch as technical and commercial evidence accumulates. The full distribution (and the prize's high tail) lives in the risk map.Remaining risk · stretch F6–F6≈ 45% residual risk, indicative: the scale drops stretch by stretch as technical and commercial evidence accumulates. The full distribution (and the prize's high tail) lives in the risk map.Remaining risk · stretch F7–F7≈ 30% residual risk, indicative: the scale drops stretch by stretch as technical and commercial evidence accumulates. The full distribution (and the prize's high tail) lives in the risk map.Remaining risk · stretch F8–F8≈ 20% residual risk, indicative: the scale drops stretch by stretch as technical and commercial evidence accumulates. The full distribution (and the prize's high tail) lives in the risk map.Remaining risk · stretch F9–F9≈ 14% residual risk, indicative: the scale drops stretch by stretch as technical and commercial evidence accumulates. The full distribution (and the prize's high tail) lives in the risk map.Remaining risk · stretch F10–F11≈ 8% residual risk, indicative: the scale drops stretch by stretch as technical and commercial evidence accumulates. The full distribution (and the prize's high tail) lives in the risk map.Remaining risk · stretch F12–F13≈ 5% residual risk, indicative: the scale drops stretch by stretch as technical and commercial evidence accumulates. The full distribution (and the prize's high tail) lives in the risk map.The crossing · the natural fundraising windowTowards F8, with traction demonstrated, the startup's value overtakes the remaining risk: institutional capital enters its terrain. The two true curves live in their pages: value in value and cost, risk in the risk map.The value multiple · how to read itThe two controls on the phases line, above, choose the stretch: this line shows its multiple and, below the map, the reading of the stretch on all the lines. Ratios of medians per phase and of their band (×0.45 to ×1.45), among survivors: the medians are those of the startups that reach each phase, and the ratio discounts neither dilution nor time. It is how much the value of a startup that advances grows, not the return per euro invested, which is given by the venture distribution in the risk map; real entry and exit prices are negotiations, not medians. The ×0.45 floor is the bottom of the band, not the worst outcome: total loss exists and lives in the risk line and in the risk map; the high tail (~4% exceed ×10) is reserved for the exit at F13. Missing by construction are dilution, liquidation preferences and time. The lesson of the line: the multiple is built by crossing phases, buying at yesterday's risk price and exiting with the gates already crossed; staying inside a phase is pure exposure to variance.F1–F2 · Typical financingVolcano and partners; visionary angels. The bands are typical, not exclusive; the complete picture, financier by financier, is in financing by phases.F3 · Typical financingTax Lease; grants; FFF; angels. The bands are typical, not exclusive; the complete picture, financier by financier, is in financing by phases.F4–F5 · Typical financingTax Lease; grants; angels. The bands are typical, not exclusive; the complete picture, financier by financier, is in financing by phases.F6 · Typical financingTax Lease; angels; convertible; pre-seed. The bands are typical, not exclusive; the complete picture, financier by financier, is in financing by phases.F7 · Typical financingTax Lease; convertible; seed. The bands are typical, not exclusive; the complete picture, financier by financier, is in financing by phases.F8 · Typical financingSeed / Series A; revenue-based. The bands are typical, not exclusive; the complete picture, financier by financier, is in financing by phases.F9 · Typical financingSeries A. The bands are typical, not exclusive; the complete picture, financier by financier, is in financing by phases.F10 · Typical financingSeries A/B; venture debt. The bands are typical, not exclusive; the complete picture, financier by financier, is in financing by phases.F11 · Typical financingBank debt; growth. The bands are typical, not exclusive; the complete picture, financier by financier, is in financing by phases.F12 · Typical financingGrowth equity; project finance. The bands are typical, not exclusive; the complete picture, financier by financier, is in financing by phases.F13 · Typical financingM&A; secondary; public markets. The bands are typical, not exclusive; the complete picture, financier by financier, is in financing by phases.Cash flow · F1–F3The button takes you to the qualification with this project already noted: you do not have to explain which one it is.Cash flow · F4–F5Building without revenue: the deep part of the valley of death. Schematic line, no figures: the lesson is the shape, and the cheap techniques for crossing the valley live in the CRL ladder.Cash flow · F6–F7The MVP brings the first payments closer; the slope changes sign. Schematic line, no figures: the lesson is the shape, and the cheap techniques for crossing the valley live in the CRL ladder.Cash flow · F8–F13With traction, revenue covers and exceeds spending. Schematic line, no figures: the lesson is the shape, and the cheap techniques for crossing the valley live in the CRL ladder.The bottom of the valley · towards F6The point of maximum committed cash: almost everything is built and nobody pays yet. Crossing it cheaply is the craft: the techniques of the CRL ladder.The break-even point · start of F8With traction (someone pays, repeats) the flow crosses zero: the valley is left behind. The chronology and the true curves, in value and cost.The memoria técnica · with TRL 2 demonstratedIt describes the problem, the solution and the development hypotheses to be travelled: that is why it requires the technology concept formulated (TRL 2). It is what the ENAC-accredited certifier examines and what the binding motivated report qualifies for the Tax Lease.The ex ante certification (ENAC) · after the memoria técnicaBefore the certifiable spending begins, an ENAC-accredited certifier examines the project on the memoria técnica: it is the ex ante piece, the first of the model's two independent certifications. The ex post pieces, every twelve months, further along this same line.The business model · on completing CRL 2, before buildingIt is sketched on completing CRL 2 and entering CRL 3 (the value proposition), before the concept: it is what prevents building a product that then goes looking for a market. The manuals agree: the KTH Innovation Readiness Level places the first draft of the model (canvas) at level 3 of its business scale (BRL 3), which walks alongside customer levels 2–3. The first version feeds the business plan and is tested with customers up to CRL 4.The business plan · after the memoria técnica, or with itIt integrates the development plan, the business model and the commercial part: that is why it comes after the memoria técnica, or at the earliest together with it, in any case after TRL 2. Financiers beyond the Tax Lease ask for it: calls (CDTI, EIC) and investors.The patent application · from the proof of conceptIntellectual property is protected when there is a mechanism to claim: as a rule from the proof of concept, before the disclosures the following phases entail.Ex post pieces · first fiscal year (month 12)The first certified fiscal year, always after the ex ante (which arrives around month 5): the ex post certification of the executed spending and the Ministry's binding motivated report, which shields the qualification before the Tax Agency.Ex post pieces · second fiscal year (month 24)The ex post certification and the motivated report of the second fiscal year. The spending of the window's final stretch, up to TRL 8, is certified at the close of its own fiscal year; the R&D fits within the twenty-four months.Ex post pieces · third fiscal year (month 36) · now tech innovation (iT), not R&DA third fiscal year may exist, with the final stretch's spending and later improvements; but once TRL 8 is passed the activity no longer qualifies as R&D but as technological innovation (iT), with its own deduction.The minimum brand · with the cheap testsSmoke and concierge tests demand a name, a landing page and a legible promise: the minimum brand is born with the CRL's cheap techniques, long before the definitive logo.The complete visual identity · towards launchWith the MVP in sight, the identity is completed: visual system, web, tone. It arrives before the market (F8), because traction is measured on a presentable promise.The sales materials · with the go-to-marketCommercial pitch, cases, pricing: the materials the channel repeats. They are born with traction and refined with product-market fit.The sale book · preparing liquidityThe outcome dossier: for M&A or public markets, it reassembles the startup's technical, commercial and corporate history.
Reading of the stretchIndicative monthsTechnical maturity (TRL)Commercial maturity (CRL)Cost of the project in the stretchMedian value of the startupRemaining riskDocuments of the stretchRounds in the stretchTypical fundingfrom {a} to {b}from {a} to {b}≈ {a} M€ · cumulative at exit ≈ {b} M€from {a} to {b} M€nonenoneWith the project type and the grant funding: the simulation of the cost of the services →F1 · Capture of the problem1 · hypothesis95%Volcano and partners; visionary angelsF2 · Analysis of the problem1 · hypothesis95%Volcano and partners; visionary angelsF3 · Ideation2 · market identified85%Tax Lease; grants; FFF; angelsF4 · Concept2 · market identified72%Tax Lease; grants; angelsF5 · Proof of concept3 · value proposition60%Tax Lease; grants; angelsF6 · Prototype3 · value proposition45%Tax Lease; angels; convertible; pre-seedF7 · MVP4 · model tested30%Tax Lease; convertible; seedF8 · Traction5 · pilot sales20%Seed / Series A; revenue-basedF9 · Product-market fit7 · unit economics14%Series AF10 · Profitable growth7 · unit economics8%Series A/B; venture debtF11 · Profitability8 · replicated8%Bank debt; growthF12 · Scale8 · replicated5%Growth equity; project financeF13 · Liquidity9 · bankable5%M&A; secondary; marketsmemoria técnicaex ante (ENAC)business modelbusiness planpatent applicationex post · month 12ex post · month 24ex post · month 36 (iT)minimum brandvisual identity · websales materialssale book0 · Discovery0 · Discovery1 · Concept and proof1 · Concept and proof1 · Concept and proof2 · Prototype and MVP2 · Prototype and MVP3 · Traction4 · Fit and revenue5 · Replication and profitability5 · Replication and profitability6 · Scale6 · Scale
you enter at F{e} · you exit at F{s} →median value among survivorsmedian value among survivors · expected per euro invested ≈ {x}; the expected = multiple × probability of reaching {p}% × dilution ×0.8 per round ({n}); without time → the risk map,
