The convertible note · private investment simulation
Scenarios, not projections.
Five gestures to reason about your investment as a private investor: the convertible note fixes your stake on day one, with a closed formula, with no discount and no cap. The why, the step by step and the full detail of the note are in capital to invest; here, only the numbers.
This simulator is for the private investor: whoever comes into the startup and ties their return to the value of the intellectual property. If your profile is that of the tax investor (contributing to the AIE and recovering through taxes), your tool is the tax simulation.
How to use it
Five gestures: choose the type of startup and its country or hub, move the two points of the journey (when you come in and when you exit) and enter your contribution. The orange band is your stretch within the life of the company, and your stake is fixed on entry: your contribution divided by the entry value plus your contribution.
What you read afterwards are the two faces of the same journey. Your percentage is diluted at every round after your entry, and your value feels it: the capital coming in enlarges the company, but it does not belong to you, and from that moment on only the part you keep grows with you. That is why the company's multiple and yours are not the same number: the difference is the dilution. The value and multiple curves are on a logarithmic scale, where the slope shows the real pace: very high in the early phases, ever calmer towards maturity.
The multiple you see is the best case: what you would obtain if the company travels the curve of the medians and exits at that price, with your percentage already diluted. Next to it, the probability that it is still alive over your interval, conditional on it already being alive when you come in. They are two separate readings, not a product: staying alive is not the same as exiting at the median, and the full distribution of outcomes, with the majority of investments that do not recover what was put in, lives in the risk map. That is why coming in earlier multiplies more and risks more, and coming in later multiplies less and risks less. Everything is indicative and nothing commits you: it is a space to reason in, not a contract.
Valor orientativo de la sociedad cuando entras: -
Indicative value of the company when you exit: -
Ticket mínimo: 10.000 €.
Value of the company · log scale
Your stake
Multiple · log scale
Tu participación orientativa: -
Indicative value of your stake at exit: -
Multiple in the best case: -
Probabilidad de supervivencia en tu intervalo: -
Your stake is fixed on entry: your contribution divided by the value of the company in the year of entry plus your contribution. The earlier you come in, the larger the stake and the larger the multiple; the deal's actual standard point (starting value plus tax capital) corresponds to the seed phase. The real value of each AIE is published once it is known. The milestones in brackets run the project's full path, from analysis of the problem to expansion, aligned with the TRL scale (indicative); the instrument's funding phases are in phased financing.
Illustrative and non-binding simulation. The curve derives from US medians by phase (Carta, over 40,000 startups) adjusted to Spain with a factor of ≈ 0.25 calibrated on anchors of the Spanish market; the multiples by type are indicative. Your exact stake is fixed by the convertible note's formula on day one, with no discount and no cap: here the market median curve acts as a proxy for the valuation; the real formula, with an example, in the convertible note. It does not constitute tax, legal or investment advice.
The numbers are yours. The next step is short.
A three-minute qualification confirms your case and proposes the right next step.
John F. Kennedy, 1962