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VOLCANO
Index

The method

Why startups fail, and what we do so that ours does not.

The exact window they cover, in phased financing: F3–F7 of the path.

There is no formula that eliminates the risk of innovating. There is, however, methodical work to remove it layer by layer, before the capital comes in. This page explains that work with the detail it deserves: phase by phase, with numbers, without promises.

11 min read · or go straight to the map

The key, in one sentence: at Volcano, the riskiest phase of the project is financed by the Tax Lease's tax investors and by public R&D funds. When private capital comes in, much of the risk has already been absorbed and paid for by other instruments.

The order in which the questions are best asked, before reading anything else: the four questions of risk.

The diagnosis

Risk is not one thing. There are six, and they arrive at different moments.

Most startups do not fail for a single reason, but from the accumulation of several, each belonging to a different phase of the path.

Risk 01

Validation

A solution is built for a problem that, in reality, nobody has with enough urgency to pay for solving it.

Risk 02

Market

The idea is born far from the real market: technically elegant, commercially irrelevant.

Risk 03

Concept

Conceptualisation is left incomplete: building starts without having thoroughly verified either technical feasibility or market consistency.

Risk 04

Technical execution

Experimental development is of poor quality: prototypes that do not hold up the promise made in the concept.

Risk 05

Management

Management, marketing, legal, industrial or commercial capabilities are missing: the product exists, but nobody knows how to take it to market.

Risk 06

Financial

The capital runs out before reaching the next milestone, almost always from having spent on the wrong phases.

Behind these six risks there are three things that, when all three are present, account for most successes. A real market: something people already want, not something they would have to be convinced of. A differential idea, measurable and objectively better than what exists. And the right team to turn that idea into a product and take it to market. The more of the three are present at once, the higher the probability of success and the higher the return. Volcano's work, in essence, is to take none of the three for granted.

Phase by phase

Where startups die, and what we did at each point.

A startup travels thirteen phases, from problem to eventual liquidity, and on each stretch it dies for a different reason. This is the map, point by point: why failure happens there, and what Volcano has built to disarm exactly that cause.

Phases 01 and 02: ideation and concept

The risk of starting from nothing

This is where most projects ought to die and, in the traditional model, fewest do: they move forward without validating. Volcano starts only with problems pre-validated by professionals in the sector, and only moves to a startup after a technical and economic feasibility study.

Phases 03 and 04: patent and prototype

The risk of building without protecting

A prototype without protected intellectual property is a gift to whoever comes next with more capital. Volcano protects the IP before the prototype, and shares it among those who create and fund it, not only among those who exploit it.

Phases 05 and 06: MVP and traction

The risk of mistaking interest for demand

Many products are liked and not bought. Here it is measured with real customers, not with surveys: the first revenue, not the first opinions, is the proof that counts.

07 · Product-market fit

The risk of scaling too early

It is the most selective phase of all (and where the largest rounds mature): scaling before this point multiplies spending without multiplying real demand. Volcano conditions the step to scale on metrics of repeat demand, not on the cash available.

Phases 08 and 09: growth and scaling

Operational risk

The team goes from a handful of people to dozens; processes that worked informally need structure. This is where Volcano's shared infrastructure (legal, technical, commercial) reduces the capital needed to sustain the pace.

Phases 10 and 11: international and IPO

The last-mile risk

Few startups get here, and those that do compete for little. A Volcano startup keeps, in this final phase, a probability of the order of twice that of a traditional one: the accumulated result of having managed the previous ten phases well.

About these figures. The probability-of-success percentages per phase (from 100% at ideation to the traditional 2% or Volcano's 4% at IPO) and the efficiency multiples on this page are Volcano's internal estimates, pending confirmation before publication. They are not a return projection for any specific case.

The six levers

What we do with each of these risks.

Lever 01

Already validated problems

We do not start from a brilliant idea, but from a problem someone has been suffering for years. Professionals in the sector point it out; the Volcano system verifies that it really exists, that it has a technological nature that can be tackled and that there is a market willing to pay for solving it. Only problems that pass this validation move on to the technical and economic feasibility study, and only then is the startup born. It is the direct answer to risk 01 and risk 02: it is eliminated before anything is built.

Lever 02

Public funds

Between 45% and 100% of research costs are covered by public funding, depending on the call and the instrument; on average, 70%. In industrialisation, coverage reaches up to 50%. It is capital that absorbs financial risk before a single private euro comes in, and it dilutes nobody. For every private euro, Volcano typically mobilises between 3 and 4 euros by combining grants, tax credits and subsidised financing. It is the answer to risk 06: much of the capital burned in the most critical phases is not private capital.

With one condition almost never stated, and which explains our whole architecture: national and European calls rarely pay for the beginning. They reward whoever has already arrived, and the usual threshold is around TRL5. Before that point, public money simply is not there. That is why the journey is funded in stretches: up to TRL2 we pay, from TRL2 to TRL5 the capital of the Tax Lease tax investors comes in, and only from TRL5 onwards can public calls be added. It is developed in how the research is paid for.

Lever 03

Independent validation

Three levels of validation (automatic, experimental and third-party) culminate in certification by a body accredited by ENAC and in the Ministry's Binding Reasoned Report, binding on the Tax Agency as to the project's classification. Nobody inside Volcano certifies their own work: the proof that something works is always provided by someone with no stake in the benefit. It is the answer to risk 03 and risk 04: technical quality is measured, not declared.

Lever 04

A tax floor: the Tax Lease

With the Tax Lease, the first return (the tax one) is certain, quantifiable in advance and structurally independent of the project's commercial success: it arises through tax transparency in the investor's own hands, it does not depend on the startup selling. It puts a floor under the operation before the industrial result is even decided. How it works, in detail →

Lever 05

The intellectual property, safe

The base IP remains with whoever brought it, under licence. The IP the project builds is born in the project vehicle and ends up entirely in the startup, awarded at an expert value anchored to cost before any act of commercialisation. If the project is interrupted, the knowledge does not sink with it: the partial intellectual property is awarded with priority for the private investor, and a documented prototype can be sold or licensed to a third party. It is the answer to what no insurance covers: the total loss of the intangible asset. How it works, in the convertible note.

Lever 06

Thirty years of the founders' experience, already tested

Risk 05 (the lack of management, marketing, legal, industrial or commercial capabilities) is the one that most quietly buries technically sound projects. This is where the founding team's track record weighs: thirty years developing innovation for multinationals, industrial groups and public administrations, with tailored solutions chosen, on specific projects, over far larger organisations. It is the same tailor's logic Volcano applies to every startup: identify a specific market need and answer it with a suit made to measure, something large organisations do not tailor.

The core of capabilities, and the startups that intersect it

The core of capabilities and the startups that intersect it A central circle represents Volcano's capabilities: R&D and product, marketing and sales, legal and tax, administration, talent and operations. Around it, six circles intersect the central one: startups 1 to 4 and, dashed, startups n and n+1, the next ones to be born. Each startup rests on the shared core. Capabilities R&D and product marketing and sales legal and tax administration talent and operations Startup 1 Startup 2 Startup 3 Startup 4 Startup n Startup n+1
Execution risk falls because nothing is built from scratch: every startup intersects a core of capabilities that already exists and has already been tested.
Against Accenture

Banca Mediolanum

The bank's complete software platform, from beginning to end.

Against Google

JC Decaux

Real-time vehicle tracking won with a device of our own making.

Against ESRI

Field GIS

Adopted by large Brazilian industrial groups such as Fibria and Samarco.

It is not theoretical advisory experience: it is the experience of having built, delivered and competed, in technology and in business management, inside organisations that afterwards had to account for real results. The full track record →

«Victory awaits the one who has everything in order: people call it luck. Defeat is certain for the one who has neglected to take the necessary precautions in time: this they call bad luck.»
Roald Amundsen, The South Pole (1912)

To discuss it with someone

Does your adviser handle it?

This page is written so that whoever does your taxes can read it too. If you would rather they saw it before you decide anything, send it to them.

What we do not promise

Industrial risk does not disappear. We share it with you.

None of these six levers eliminates the risk of building something nobody has built before; that is, literally, what innovating means. What they do is remove, one by one, the causes of failure that need not be there. What remains (the genuinely industrial risk) is taken on by Volcano first: it is the first investor in every project, and it gains only if the startup gains.

And it is not shared equally, which is worth saying. The tax investor collects their return in taxes they stop paying, and collects it even if the startup gets nowhere. The private investor comes in when the Tax Lease and public funds have already paid for much of the research, so their money is a fraction of what has been invested and it buys an already de-risked position. The years without revenue, the research that may come to nothing and the cost of setting it all up are put in by us, first.

And if the project stops?

It is the legitimate question of any investor faced with a system that boasts of killing early: if you stop a project I have invested in, what happens to my money? The first part of the answer is about phase: stopping a project at F2–F5, at low cost and with capital whose return did not depend on its success, is the system working: every question of the seven decisions exists for that. What would be a validation failure is the opposite: reaching the expensive phases with the cheap questions unanswered. The second part is structural, and it is four mechanisms.

Capital comes in tranches. The commitment is drawn down phase by phase, on each decision cleared: if the project stops, the tranches not called never leave the investor's pocket. The loss stays confined to the phase consumed, not to the total commitment.

Continuity within the portfolio. The stake in a stopped project can be converted into a stake in another project in Volcano's portfolio, at a documented valuation: the investor stays in the system, not in the project that went out.

Nothing dies entirely. A stopped project leaves assets: the intellectual property, the data, the prototypes. They are licensed or sold, and the investor shares in the result. The IP strategy is designed for this case too.

The rules are signed beforehand. The seven decisions and the expected mortality by phase are declared before capital comes in: stopping a project is executing a rule signed by everyone, not an arbitrary act after the fact.

And for the tax investor, the strongest answer is already built into the instrument: their return is certain by design and does not depend on the project succeeding. The exact terms of each mechanism are set out in the contractual documentation of each project.

We choose to go to the Moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard.
John F. Kennedy, 1962
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