Value and cost
Value and cost, phase by phase.
How much it costs to develop each maturity level, how much the startup is worth at each phase, and where the gap is that investors and allies can capture. Move the mouse, or your finger, over the chart.
4 min read
The anchors
Where the curves come from.
| Anchor | Value | Source | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median pre-money valuation, pre-seed and seed, Europe | €4.8–6.0M (across 2026 quarters) | PitchBook, European VC Valuations, 2026 | Market evidence; it swings by quarter, sector and geography |
| Median pre-money valuation, Series A, Europe | ≈€26M, 30–50% below the US | PitchBook, Atomico and Carta, 2026 synthesis | Market evidence |
| Budget of a national R&D project | €0.175–2M (minimum fundable €175,000) | CDTI, PID line | Observable proxy for R&D cost |
| Size of the European instruments per TRL band | Pathfinder ≈€3–4M · Transition ≤€2.5M · Accelerator ≤€2.5M grant | European Commission, EIC (Horizon Europe) | Observable proxy |
| Average non-repayable share of R&D cost | ~70% (from 45% to 100% depending on the project) | How we reduce risk | A figure of the Volcano model |
| Correspondence between phases, TRL and CRL | The TRL dominates F3–F7; the CRL, F8–F13 | The path · the CRL ladder | Volcano framework; each project's point is validated by the committee |
Market figures and public instruments, indicative: they are not Volcano data nor a performance projection for any specific case.
The two readings
How investors and clients read it.
The investor or ally looks at the gap: they enter at the cost, and capture on the value curve; the earlier they enter, the greater the distance between the two curves, and the greater the risk that comes with it. The map of risk and reward puts numbers on that second half of the sentence.
Whoever commissions innovation looks at the dashed curve: the gross cost of each TRL band is that of the grey curve, but the Volcano model lowers it by 70% on average with non-repayable public funds. The exact budget of their case is defined after the qualification.
From the curves to your case
The committee sets each stake and each budget. These curves tell you where you are; the qualification tells you how much, in your case.
John F. Kennedy, 1962