From an unsolved problem to a company on the market
Volcano produces solutions and startups in series to create new resources and make them accessible to everyone. It brings together skills, network and capital; it reduces the costs, the time and the risk of innovation; and it invests in the first person in the projects it generates.
The ongoing systemic crises have two main causes: the scarcity of material and energy resources, which climate change worsens year after year, and their uneven distribution across the planet. It follows that any solution able to create new resources and make them accessible to all answers both, and therefore has the potential to defuse the crises.
Creating new solutions means innovating, and innovating requires heterogeneous factors, such as ideas, competencies and capital, which are rarely found all in the same organisation. The result is that innovation does not always reach its goal; and when it does, it often does so slowly and with an inefficient use of competencies and capital.
Volcano was born to solve this problem. It does so as a venture builder: an organisation that already has the necessary competencies and resources, in its internal core and in its network of entrepreneurs, researchers, managers and financiers. Given a problem, it builds everything needed to solve it, up to the company in the market, generating positive social impact and, with it, profit: it thus reduces costs, time and risk, and develops solutions and startups in series.
Volcano is open to anyone who has a problem, competencies, relationships, technology or capital and wants to put them at the service of innovation, in exchange for a share in the resulting business, assigned with a fair and transparent method.
Solving real and widespread problems, in the fields of environmental, social and economic sustainability and in particular of water, food and energy security, has two consequences. The first: frequent access to non-repayable grants, on average 70% of R&D costs and up to 50% of industrialisation costs, one more lever against financial risk. The second: profit, because a real problem creates demand and a widespread problem creates scale. Profitability is not the goal of Volcano: it is the consequence, and the proof, of a solution that works.
In short: Volcano develops highly sustainable innovation, at lower cost, in less time, with a higher probability of success and, as a result, with higher expected profits.
Volcano does not sell services to those who want to innovate: it innovates and invests in first person, opens its process to the participation of others and ties its profit to the success of the projects and the startups it helps create. Whoever truly believes in innovation cannot do otherwise.
A network of independent companies in Europe and around the world, under one same manifesto · legal and operational coordination from Santa Cruz de Tenerife.
The phases of value construction.
Development path diagram of a Volcano project
This diagram represents the typical development path of a project, and of a startup, at Volcano: thirteen phases, from the capture of the problem to liquidity. Timings are indicative and vary from project to project. Click on the diagram to enlarge it and see the seven lines that run over the phases, stretch by stretch: technical maturity (TRL), commercial maturity (CRL) with the product milestones, the seven financing rounds, cost, value, the value multiple and typical funding. Each stretch leads to the page that explains it.
The full diagram, with the thirteen phases described and the lines in a table, has its own page: the phases of value construction.
Click on the diagram to enlarge it ⤢ · The dot that travels the phases follows the indicative timeline; the dashed marks are the seven decision gates (D1–D7), which close phases F1 to F7; the diagram represents one project, and if the startup is new and has a single project, the project is the startup. Indicative figures: European medians and public proxies, with the anchors and their sources on the linked pages; the multiples are ratios of those medians, not a promise; the funding bands are typical, not exclusive.
The figures of the model.
Up to 100%of R&D costs covered by public funding, depending on the project
12% → 200%tax credit on what you contribute: from the mainland minimum for technological innovation to the usual cases with private capital; the value depends on your tax profile and on the project's structure: your exact point, in the tax simulation (indicative)
4%of corporate income tax for the startup under the regime ZEC
30 yearsof the founders' track record: tailored solutions chosen, on specific projects, over the big names of the sector
13 phasesfrom problem to eventual liquidity, with an advantage from day one
61own projects in the portfolio, each with its card and its real state
Up to 20×what a solid startup can multiply its value by in its first years on the market, for whoever comes in as a business angel at the earliest phases
4active startups born of the portfolio, each with its own card
Indicative and general market figures; they are not a projection of return for any specific case.
The proof
The results of our effort.
We do not ask you to believe us: check for yourself. The projects Volcano has open right now, and the startups it has already built: each in its own space, with the detail it deserves.
The project is the logical container of an R&D phase; the startup is the legal container that takes the result to market and gets paid for it. One researches and ends; the other sells and stays. The project also has its own temporary vehicle, the AIE that funds it and is wound up when the cycle ends: a company born to die, exactly the opposite of the startup.
That is why the startup is created first and is the container: inside it carries a problem, an idea of a solution and a concept, and every time another problem of its same class appears a project is born that develops and flows into it. One startup may end up housing products born of different projects. That is why you can come in at any moment, and that is why coming in early is worth more.
Your turn
What you already have counts.
Almost anything can be capital. Choose what you have and you will see what it turns into: a stake in the startup that is born.
Eight doors, one single principle: if it reduces a venture's risk or adds real value to it, it is capital, whether or not it takes the form of money. The full theory →
When a startup reaches product-market fit and scales, the multiples on the capital of the early rounds are counted in tens or hundreds of times. Here is the low end of that range, and it still resembles nothing else: everything measured in purchasing power, so that what happens to money that does not move is visible too. It is not an average: it is what happens when it makes it. Most do not make it, and the next section is about that, and about what we do so that fewer fail.
What is left of one euro after ten years
Everything in purchasing power: every figure already has the price rise of the same period discounted (×1.35 over ten years, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis index, 1928-2025). A multiplier is never negative: idle money stays at ×0.74, which is what is left of your euro after losing 26%; what is negative is the change. The line marks ×1, what you had: a bar that does not reach it has lost. The three central bars compound over ten years the average annualised returns of 1928-2025 from the A. Damodaran (NYU Stern) series. The last one is the historical order of magnitude on the capital of the early rounds when the project reaches the market and scales, and takes the low end of the range, which in purchasing power is ×7.4 and in nominal terms ×10. Most projects do not make it. Orders of magnitude, not Volcano data nor a projection for any particular case.
Golden rule: to innovation you commit only a part of the capital available.
10× → 100×the historical multiples on the capital of the early rounds when a startup reaches product-market fit and scales; in the chart above that same ×10 appears as ×7.4, because there inflation has been discounted
~2%of traditional startups make it to a stock market listing; the rest is split between sales, closures and private continuity
45% → 100%of research costs covered by public funds depending on the project (in many cases, around half), before committing a single private euro
6 leversof risk reduction, each on a different phase: the detail in how we reduce the risk
Historical and market figures, indicative: they are not Volcano data nor a projection for any specific case.
Notice. The content of this page is informational and does not constitute tax, legal or investment advice. The figures and percentages are indicative: the rules change and this page may not reflect the latest legislative provisions. No figure on this page is a promise or a guarantee of return for any specific case. The values applicable to each case are reviewed and discussed in the video call.
The industrial risk that remains we take on with you: Volcano is the first investor in every project.
Before a project exists
Volcano's capital for innovation.
Three assets accumulated over the years, which stand behind every new venture even before it exists.
An estate of concepts
61 proyectos propios en cartera
Each with its public card, its real level of technological maturity (TRL) and its current state: see the full portfolio. The technical detail and the indicative valuation of each project are shared after qualification.
Renewable energy and storageSustainable mobility and electrificationAgritechHealthtech and medical devicesCircular economyIndustrial digitalisation · IoT and applied AI
An international network
Research and technology, coordinated from the Canary Islands
Volcano is not a single company: it is a network of independent companies, each with its own name and its own legal personality, that adhere to one same manifesto and operate under the same rules. The whole network, suppliers included, today brings together a workforce of around 400 people. Today the confirmed base is this one:
Santa Cruz de Tenerife: legal and operational coordination
A financial system
Public funds, Tax Lease, ZEC regime
An infrastructure of our own to finance innovation before private capital comes in. It has three parts: public funds, which depending on the project cover up to 100% of research costs; the Tax Lease, for those with a tax burden to contribute; and the ZEC regime at 4%, for when the startup reaches the market.
≈6,9-9,9 M€estimated value of the project portfolio at its current phase (indicative)
0,9 M€invested in the projects under way over the last two years
2 M€aggregate value of the active startups, between starting value and tax capital already received
Whoever has a tax debt can direct it to Canarian research. In return they receive two things. The first is a certain tax credit, which adds the R&D&I deduction and the negative tax bases. The second is a stake in the startup that will bring the technology to market, for the part of the contribution that the credit does not return. The credit is calculated on the project's qualified expense, not on your contribution. How much it is worth depends on the investor's tax profile and on the structure of the project: in the most favourable profile it reaches ≈126% of the contribution if the tax investors cover the whole budget, and rises to ≈200% in the usual cases with private capital; in other profiles it is lower, down to the mainland minimum of ≈12% for technological innovation. You can explore your own figure in the tax simulation (indicative).
For the classic Tax Lease operators the instrument is an end: they act as intermediaries between other people's projects and tax investors, and their remuneration is a percentage of the project's cost. For Volcano it is a means: we apply it only to our own projects, we manage the whole process at cost with minimal margins, and we shift our margin to the stake in the startup: we gain later, and only if the startup gains. The full comparison is in the Tax Lease as a means.
12% → 200%tax credit on what you contribute: from the mainland minimum for technological innovation to the usual cases with private capital; the value depends on your tax profile and on the project's structure: your exact point, in the tax simulation (indicative)
4%Corporate income tax of the startup under the ZEC regime
18 yearsof carry-forward for the credit if the annual tax liability is not enough (art. 39.1 LIS)
Notice. The content of this section is informational and does not constitute tax, legal or investment advice. The figures are indicative and depend on each case's profile; they are reviewed and discussed in the video call.
What we look for most
Your capital is stored power. Give it a channel.
A volcano is not destruction: it is power that finds its channel. Today a great deal of capital lives without an outlet worthy of it: tax liabilities that are simply paid, liquidity waiting for a destination. Give it a channel: help us accelerate the development of the projects and obtain a financial return you can calculate on the map of risk and reward, knowing that you contribute to water, food and energy security solutions.
And if you feel you lack information to decide? It is the sensible reaction, and we have written about it: 100% never arrives, and there is an interval in which you already know enough. We call it the decision window.
Tax investor
You have a corporate income tax liability to pay.
Turn it into a double return: a tax deduction today, a stake in the startup tomorrow. It is the Volcano Method of technological Tax Lease.
Come in de-risked: the riskiest phase is already funded by the tax investors and public funds, and the rescue floor is mapped in the map of risk and reward.
A short qualification, with no sensitive data. If it is a strong fit, a free video call with the team; if we need to go deeper, a call with a refundable fee; if it is still early, resources to explore calmly.
Press Esc or "Close" to exit. On a touch screen: tap a stretch to read its card, and tap it again to go to its page.
F1 · Capture of the problemHas a problem entered the network, brought by whoever suffers it?Problem formulated by its bearer, and entry channel identified: whoever suffers it tells the network, through a client, the consultancy or an ally.Guide: Volcano · TRL: none yet · Typical funding: Volcano and partners; visionary angels.F2 · Analysis of the problemWhat is the process where the problem lives like, and is it worth solving?The current process, broken down into its steps. If a solution already exists, it is checked piece by piece that it is ineffective or inefficient. The exact point of pain. Frequency, cost and willingness to pay. Reliability of the source.Guide: Volcano · TRL: none yet · Typical funding: Volcano and partners; visionary angels.F3 · IdeationAre there plausible routes, and which one deserves the concept?Alternatives compared; reasoned choice.Led by: Volcano with the nascent startup · TRL 1–2 · Typical funding: Tax Lease; grants; FFF; angels.F4 · ConceptHas the idea stopped being a hypothesis?An idea is a hypothesis; the concept is the idea turned into a verified mechanism, even if only theoretically. Theoretical verification is full science: physics has thought experiments, and with them Einstein changed our view of the world. Evidence: the mechanism described, the physical and economic limits checked on paper, the risks named. With the concept formulated (TRL 2) the memoria técnica is drafted, and with it the business plan: the dossier with which the project presents itself to funding.Led by: the startup with Volcano · TRL 2 · Typical funding: Tax Lease; grants; angels.F5 · Proof of conceptDoes the central mechanism work?The technological feasibility of the concept demonstrated with real instruments, mechanical, hardware and software, under controlled conditions and reproducibly.Led by: the startup · TRL 3–4 · Typical funding: Tax Lease; grants; angels.F6 · PrototypeDoes the integrated system work in a relevant environment?Prototype operating outside the laboratory.Led by: the startup · TRL 5–6 · Typical funding: Tax Lease; angels; convertible note; pre-seed.F7 · MVPDoes the minimum viable product hold up in front of real users?Real use, structured feedback, observed abandonment.Led by: the startup · TRL 7–8 · Typical funding: Tax Lease; convertible note; seed.F8 · TractionDoes somebody pay, repeat, and across several customers with a recognisable channel?Initial recurring revenue on the minimum sellable version; channel identified; acquisition cost measured.Led by: the startup · CRL rising · Typical funding: Seed / Series A; revenue-based.F9 · Product-market fitDo retention and unit economics work at small scale?Cohorts that stay; positive unit margin; observable organic growth.Led by: the startup · CRL rising · Typical funding: Series A.F10 · Profitable growthAs it grows, does the unit margin hold?Growth does not buy revenue at a loss: the unit metrics hold as the customers multiply, and the product is by now the minimum marketable product (MMP), ready for the broad market.Led by: the startup · CRL rising · Typical funding: Series A/B; venture debt.F11 · ProfitabilityDo the solution's flows cover the structure?Operating break-even reached: the profit on the solution.Led by: the startup · CRL high · Typical funding: Bank debt; growth.F12 · ScaleDoes the model hold up under multiplication: operations, channels, geographies?Expansion without breaking margins or organisation. Internationalisation is a case of this phase, not a separate phase.Led by: the startup · CRL high · Typical funding: Growth equity; project finance.F13 · LiquidityCan whoever invested get out?Sale, secondary or flotation, which is only the rarest case. The profit belongs to the company; the liquidity, to the investor: they can be years apart.Guide: the startup and its partners · TRL: completed · Typical funding: M&A; secondary; markets.Discovery (F1–F2)The front end of innovation (Koen): capturing and analysing the problem before formal R&D. The Frascati Manual leaves it outside R&D, and successful projects invest here around twice as much.R&D (F3–F7)Formal R&D in the Frascati sense: from ideation to the MVP, with TRL in command.Market (F8–F11)The CRL takes command: traction, adjustment, profitable growth, profitability.Scale (F12–F13)The multiplication of the model, all the way to liquidity.D1 · the gate that closes F1Has a problem entered the network, brought by the one who suffers it? With the yes, the next phase arrives with the previous risk already paid; without the yes, the phase repeats until the evidence arrives.D2 · the gate that closes F2What is the process where the problem lives, and is it worth solving? With the yes, the next phase arrives with the previous risk already paid; without the yes, the phase repeats until the evidence arrives.D3 · the gate that closes F3Are there plausible paths, and which one deserves the concept? With the yes, the next phase arrives with the previous risk already paid; without the yes, the phase repeats until the evidence arrives.D4 · the gate that closes F4Has the idea stopped being a hypothesis? With the yes, the next phase arrives with the previous risk already paid; without the yes, the phase repeats until the evidence arrives.D5 · the gate that closes F5Does the core mechanism work? With the yes, the next phase arrives with the previous risk already paid; without the yes, the phase repeats until the evidence arrives. What the market teaches can send the product back: that is the pivot, part of the method.D6 · the gate that closes F6Does the integrated system work in a relevant environment? With the yes, the next phase arrives with the previous risk already paid; without the yes, the phase repeats until the evidence arrives. What the market teaches can send the product back: that is the pivot, part of the method.D7 · the gate that closes F7Does the minimum viable product hold up before real users? With the yes, the next phase arrives with the previous risk already paid; without the yes, the phase repeats until the evidence arrives. What the market teaches can send the product back: that is the pivot, part of the method.TRL 1Basic principles observed. The base science exists and is published; nobody has built anything yet.TRL 2Technology concept formulated. The possible practical application is described; everything is still on paper.TRL 3Experimental proof of concept. A laboratory experiment shows the critical function is possible.TRL 4Validation in the laboratory. The integrated components work together under controlled conditions.TRL 5Validation in a relevant environment. The whole works under conditions that resemble the real ones.TRL 6Demonstration in a relevant environment. A complete prototype demonstrates performance close to the real thing.TRL 7Demonstration in an operational environment. The prototype works where the product will live, with real users and conditions.TRL 8Complete and qualified system. The product is finished, tested and certified: ready to be produced.TRL 9System proven in the real environment. Real, continued operation: the technology is no longer the risk.CRL 1 · hypothesisThere is a verified problem and a hypothesis of who would pay to solve it. The capture proves it: the bearer exists and the pain is paid for every day.CRL 2 · market identifiedThe analysis names the concrete market and application. The decomposed process and the convenience screening prove it.CRL 3 · value propositionThere is a value proposition articulated against the alternatives. The first conversations with real counterparts prove it.CRL 4 · model testedThe business model is sketched and tested with potential customers. Interviews and letters of interest prove it; smoke tests and concierge bring cheap evidence.CRL 5 · pilot salesSomeone pays for the first time. Pilot sales or signed letters of intent prove it.CRL 6 · revenueRevenue repeats under market conditions. Recurring invoicing outside the pilot proves it.CRL 7 · unit economicsEach unit sold leaves margin. Positive unit economics at small scale prove it.CRL 8 · replicatedThe model works beyond the first segment. Replication in new segments or territories proves it.CRL 9 · bankableCommercial risk is ordinary. Stable revenue that a bank agrees to finance proves it.The techniquesSmoke test and Concierge: commercial evidence almost without spending TRL.MVPThe smallest product a real user can try.EVP / MLPThe MVP's evolutions: delighting and retaining the first users.MMPThe smallest product a customer can buy; open market.Product-market fitRetention and unit economics that hold: demand pulls on its own.Round 0 · Discovery · F1–F2Enters at the start of F1; completes on completing F2, when its gate is crossed: the note subscribed in this round converts at that moment. CRL 1 to 2 · no TRL. Cost to finance on the median curve ≈ 0.22 M€; multiple between medians ×2 at close · ×450 to F13 (survivors, no dilution). Typical instruments: Volcano and partners; visionary angels. All seven rounds, on their page.Round 1 · Concept and proof · F3–F5Enters at the start of F3; completes on completing F5, when its gate is crossed: the note subscribed in this round converts at that moment. CRL 2 to 3 · TRL 1 to 4. Cost to finance on the median curve ≈ 0.53 M€; multiple between medians ×20 at close · ×225 to F13 (survivors, no dilution). Typical instruments: Tax Lease; grants; FFF; angels; convertible note. All seven rounds, on their page.Round 2 · Prototype and MVP · F6–F7Enters at the start of F6; completes on completing F7, when its gate is crossed: the note subscribed in this round converts at that moment. CRL 4 · TRL 5 to 8 · the IP arrives. Cost to finance on the median curve ≈ 0.70 M€; multiple between medians ×3 at close · ×11 to F13 (survivors, no dilution). Typical instruments: Tax Lease; angels; convertible note; pre-seed and seed. All seven rounds, on their page.Round 3 · Traction · F8Enters at the start of F8; completes on completing F8, when its gate is crossed: the note subscribed in this round converts at that moment. CRL 5 · TRL 9. Cost to finance on the median curve ≈ 0.40 M€; multiple between medians ×1.8 at close · ×3.8 to F13 (survivors, no dilution). Typical instruments: Seed / Series A; revenue-based. All seven rounds, on their page.Round 4 · Fit and revenue · F9Enters at the start of F9; completes on completing F9, when its gate is crossed: the note subscribed in this round converts at that moment. CRL 6 to 7. Cost to finance on the median curve ≈ 0.35 M€; multiple between medians ×1.2 at close · ×2 to F13 (survivors, no dilution). Typical instruments: Series A. All seven rounds, on their page.Round 5 · Replication and profitability · F10–F11Enters at the start of F10; completes on completing F11, when its gate is crossed: the note subscribed in this round converts at that moment. CRL 8. Cost to finance on the median curve ≈ 0.70 M€; multiple between medians ×1.4 at close · ×1.7 to F13 (survivors, no dilution). Typical instruments: Series A/B; venture debt; bank debt; growth. All seven rounds, on their page.Round 6 · Scale · F12–F13Enters at the start of F12; completes on completing F13, when its gate is crossed: the note subscribed in this round converts at that moment. CRL 9. Cost to finance on the median curve ≈ 0.30 M€; multiple between medians ×1.2 at close · ×1.2 to F13 (survivors, no dilution). Typical instruments: Growth equity; project finance; M&A; secondary. All seven rounds, on their page.F1 · accumulated cost≈ 0.12 M€ at the close of the capture, according to the published curve. It is discovery, not R&D: the front end of innovation (Koen), which Frascati leaves outside formal R&D.F2 · accumulated cost≈ 0.22 M€ at the close of the analysis: the full discovery costs at least 0.2 M€ before R&D, and successful projects invest here around twice as much.Accumulated cost at the close of TRL 1≈ 0.35 M€ according to the curve published in value and cost (interpolation by phase); the prior discovery costs at least 0.2 M€ and is not R&D.Accumulated cost at the close of TRL 2≈ 0.55 M€ according to the curve published in value and cost (interpolation by phase); the prior discovery costs at least 0.2 M€ and is not R&D.Accumulated cost at the close of TRL 3≈ 0.65 M€ according to the curve published in value and cost (interpolation by phase); the prior discovery costs at least 0.2 M€ and is not R&D.Accumulated cost at the close of TRL 4≈ 0.75 M€ according to the curve published in value and cost (interpolation by phase); the prior discovery costs at least 0.2 M€ and is not R&D.Accumulated cost at the close of TRL 5≈ 0.9 M€ according to the curve published in value and cost (interpolation by phase); the prior discovery costs at least 0.2 M€ and is not R&D.Accumulated cost at the close of TRL 6≈ 1.05 M€ according to the curve published in value and cost (interpolation by phase); the prior discovery costs at least 0.2 M€ and is not R&D.Accumulated cost at the close of TRL 7≈ 1.25 M€ according to the curve published in value and cost (interpolation by phase); the prior discovery costs at least 0.2 M€ and is not R&D.Accumulated cost at the close of TRL 8≈ 1.45 M€ according to the curve published in value and cost (interpolation by phase); the prior discovery costs at least 0.2 M€ and is not R&D.Accumulated cost at the close of TRL 9≈ 1.85 M€ according to the curve published in value and cost (interpolation by phase); the prior discovery costs at least 0.2 M€ and is not R&D.F9 · cumulative cost of the project≈ 2.2 M€ at the close of F9, according to the curve published in value and cost. No longer R&D: it is industrialisation, market and scale, which the curve keeps counting; the R&D grant funding does not cover it.F10 · cumulative cost of the project≈ 2.6 M€ at the close of F10, according to the curve published in value and cost. No longer R&D: it is industrialisation, market and scale, which the curve keeps counting; the R&D grant funding does not cover it.F11 · cumulative cost of the project≈ 2.9 M€ at the close of F11, according to the curve published in value and cost. No longer R&D: it is industrialisation, market and scale, which the curve keeps counting; the R&D grant funding does not cover it.F12 · cumulative cost of the project≈ 3.1 M€ at the close of F12, according to the curve published in value and cost. No longer R&D: it is industrialisation, market and scale, which the curve keeps counting; the R&D grant funding does not cover it.F13 · cumulative cost of the project≈ 3.2 M€ at the close of F13, according to the curve published in value and cost. No longer R&D: it is industrialisation, market and scale, which the curve keeps counting; the R&D grant funding does not cover it.Value at the close of F1≈ 0.1 M€ median. Initial value with the Berkus method: the idea, the team, the relationships and the verified problem are worth something before revenue; provisional figure within the 0.2–1 M€ range.Value at the close of F2≈ 0.2 M€ median. Initial value with the Berkus method: the idea, the team, the relationships and the verified problem are worth something before revenue; provisional figure within the 0.2–1 M€ range.Value at the close of F3≈ 1.5 M€ median. European median of the curve published in value and cost; the chart's band runs from ×0.45 to ×1.45, and the great outcomes are worth far more (the high tail, in the risk map).Value at the close of F4≈ 2.6 M€ median. European median of the curve published in value and cost; the chart's band runs from ×0.45 to ×1.45, and the great outcomes are worth far more (the high tail, in the risk map).Value at the close of F5≈ 4 M€ median. European median of the curve published in value and cost; the chart's band runs from ×0.45 to ×1.45, and the great outcomes are worth far more (the high tail, in the risk map).Value at the close of F6≈ 5.6 M€ median. European median of the curve published in value and cost; the chart's band runs from ×0.45 to ×1.45, and the great outcomes are worth far more (the high tail, in the risk map).Value at the close of F7≈ 12 M€ median. European median of the curve published in value and cost; the chart's band runs from ×0.45 to ×1.45, and the great outcomes are worth far more (the high tail, in the risk map).Value at the close of F8≈ 22 M€ median. European median of the curve published in value and cost; the chart's band runs from ×0.45 to ×1.45, and the great outcomes are worth far more (the high tail, in the risk map).Value at the close of F9≈ 27 M€ median. European median of the curve published in value and cost; the chart's band runs from ×0.45 to ×1.45, and the great outcomes are worth far more (the high tail, in the risk map).Value at the close of F10≈ 33 M€ median. European median of the curve published in value and cost; the chart's band runs from ×0.45 to ×1.45, and the great outcomes are worth far more (the high tail, in the risk map).Value at the close of F11≈ 38 M€ median. European median of the curve published in value and cost; the chart's band runs from ×0.45 to ×1.45, and the great outcomes are worth far more (the high tail, in the risk map).Value at the close of F12≈ 42 M€ median. European median of the curve published in value and cost; the chart's band runs from ×0.45 to ×1.45, and the great outcomes are worth far more (the high tail, in the risk map).Value at the close of F13≈ 45 M€ median. European median of the curve published in value and cost; the chart's band runs from ×0.45 to ×1.45, and the great outcomes are worth far more (the high tail, in the risk map).Remaining risk · stretch F1–F2≈ 95% residual risk, indicative: the scale drops stretch by stretch as technical and commercial evidence accumulates. The full distribution (and the prize's high tail) lives in the risk map.Remaining risk · stretch F3–F3≈ 85% residual risk, indicative: the scale drops stretch by stretch as technical and commercial evidence accumulates. The full distribution (and the prize's high tail) lives in the risk map.Remaining risk · stretch F4–F4≈ 72% residual risk, indicative: the scale drops stretch by stretch as technical and commercial evidence accumulates. The full distribution (and the prize's high tail) lives in the risk map.Remaining risk · stretch F5–F5≈ 60% residual risk, indicative: the scale drops stretch by stretch as technical and commercial evidence accumulates. The full distribution (and the prize's high tail) lives in the risk map.Remaining risk · stretch F6–F6≈ 45% residual risk, indicative: the scale drops stretch by stretch as technical and commercial evidence accumulates. The full distribution (and the prize's high tail) lives in the risk map.Remaining risk · stretch F7–F7≈ 30% residual risk, indicative: the scale drops stretch by stretch as technical and commercial evidence accumulates. The full distribution (and the prize's high tail) lives in the risk map.Remaining risk · stretch F8–F8≈ 20% residual risk, indicative: the scale drops stretch by stretch as technical and commercial evidence accumulates. The full distribution (and the prize's high tail) lives in the risk map.Remaining risk · stretch F9–F9≈ 14% residual risk, indicative: the scale drops stretch by stretch as technical and commercial evidence accumulates. The full distribution (and the prize's high tail) lives in the risk map.Remaining risk · stretch F10–F11≈ 8% residual risk, indicative: the scale drops stretch by stretch as technical and commercial evidence accumulates. The full distribution (and the prize's high tail) lives in the risk map.Remaining risk · stretch F12–F13≈ 5% residual risk, indicative: the scale drops stretch by stretch as technical and commercial evidence accumulates. The full distribution (and the prize's high tail) lives in the risk map.The crossing · the natural fundraising windowTowards F8, with traction demonstrated, the startup's value overtakes the remaining risk: institutional capital enters its terrain. The two true curves live in their pages: value in value and cost, risk in the risk map.The value multiple · how to read itThe two controls on the phases line, above, choose the stretch: this line shows its multiple and, below the map, the reading of the stretch on all the lines. Ratios of medians per phase and of their band (×0.45 to ×1.45), among survivors: the medians are those of the startups that reach each phase, and the ratio discounts neither dilution nor time. It is how much the value of a startup that advances grows, not the return per euro invested, which is given by the venture distribution in the risk map; real entry and exit prices are negotiations, not medians. The ×0.45 floor is the bottom of the band, not the worst outcome: total loss exists and lives in the risk line and in the risk map; the high tail (~4% exceed ×10) is reserved for the exit at F13. Missing by construction are dilution, liquidation preferences and time. The lesson of the line: the multiple is built by crossing phases, buying at yesterday's risk price and exiting with the gates already crossed; staying inside a phase is pure exposure to variance.F1–F2 · Typical financingVolcano and partners; visionary angels. The bands are typical, not exclusive; the complete picture, financier by financier, is in financing by phases.F3 · Typical financingTax Lease; grants; FFF; angels. The bands are typical, not exclusive; the complete picture, financier by financier, is in financing by phases.F4–F5 · Typical financingTax Lease; grants; angels. The bands are typical, not exclusive; the complete picture, financier by financier, is in financing by phases.F6 · Typical financingTax Lease; angels; convertible; pre-seed. The bands are typical, not exclusive; the complete picture, financier by financier, is in financing by phases.F7 · Typical financingTax Lease; convertible; seed. The bands are typical, not exclusive; the complete picture, financier by financier, is in financing by phases.F8 · Typical financingSeed / Series A; revenue-based. The bands are typical, not exclusive; the complete picture, financier by financier, is in financing by phases.F9 · Typical financingSeries A. The bands are typical, not exclusive; the complete picture, financier by financier, is in financing by phases.F10 · Typical financingSeries A/B; venture debt. The bands are typical, not exclusive; the complete picture, financier by financier, is in financing by phases.F11 · Typical financingBank debt; growth. The bands are typical, not exclusive; the complete picture, financier by financier, is in financing by phases.F12 · Typical financingGrowth equity; project finance. The bands are typical, not exclusive; the complete picture, financier by financier, is in financing by phases.F13 · Typical financingM&A; secondary; public markets. The bands are typical, not exclusive; the complete picture, financier by financier, is in financing by phases.Cash flow · F1–F3The button takes you to the qualification with this project already noted: you do not have to explain which one it is.Cash flow · F4–F5Building without revenue: the deep part of the valley of death. Schematic line, no figures: the lesson is the shape, and the cheap techniques for crossing the valley live in the CRL ladder.Cash flow · F6–F7The MVP brings the first payments closer; the slope changes sign. Schematic line, no figures: the lesson is the shape, and the cheap techniques for crossing the valley live in the CRL ladder.Cash flow · F8–F13With traction, revenue covers and exceeds spending. Schematic line, no figures: the lesson is the shape, and the cheap techniques for crossing the valley live in the CRL ladder.The bottom of the valley · towards F6The point of maximum committed cash: almost everything is built and nobody pays yet. Crossing it cheaply is the craft: the techniques of the CRL ladder.The break-even point · start of F8With traction (someone pays, repeats) the flow crosses zero: the valley is left behind. The chronology and the true curves, in value and cost.The memoria técnica · with TRL 2 demonstratedIt describes the problem, the solution and the development hypotheses to be travelled: that is why it requires the technology concept formulated (TRL 2). It is what the ENAC-accredited certifier examines and what the binding motivated report qualifies for the Tax Lease.The ex ante certification (ENAC) · after the memoria técnicaBefore the certifiable spending begins, an ENAC-accredited certifier examines the project on the memoria técnica: it is the ex ante piece, the first of the model's two independent certifications. The ex post pieces, every twelve months, further along this same line.The business model · on completing CRL 2, before buildingIt is sketched on completing CRL 2 and entering CRL 3 (the value proposition), before the concept: it is what prevents building a product that then goes looking for a market. The manuals agree: the KTH Innovation Readiness Level places the first draft of the model (canvas) at level 3 of its business scale (BRL 3), which walks alongside customer levels 2–3. The first version feeds the business plan and is tested with customers up to CRL 4.The business plan · after the memoria técnica, or with itIt integrates the development plan, the business model and the commercial part: that is why it comes after the memoria técnica, or at the earliest together with it, in any case after TRL 2. Financiers beyond the Tax Lease ask for it: calls (CDTI, EIC) and investors.The patent application · from the proof of conceptIntellectual property is protected when there is a mechanism to claim: as a rule from the proof of concept, before the disclosures the following phases entail.Ex post pieces · first fiscal year (month 12)The first certified fiscal year, always after the ex ante (which arrives around month 5): the ex post certification of the executed spending and the Ministry's binding motivated report, which shields the qualification before the Tax Agency.Ex post pieces · second fiscal year (month 24)The ex post certification and the motivated report of the second fiscal year. The spending of the window's final stretch, up to TRL 8, is certified at the close of its own fiscal year; the R&D fits within the twenty-four months.Ex post pieces · third fiscal year (month 36) · now tech innovation (iT), not R&DA third fiscal year may exist, with the final stretch's spending and later improvements; but once TRL 8 is passed the activity no longer qualifies as R&D but as technological innovation (iT), with its own deduction.The minimum brand · with the cheap testsSmoke and concierge tests demand a name, a landing page and a legible promise: the minimum brand is born with the CRL's cheap techniques, long before the definitive logo.The complete visual identity · towards launchWith the MVP in sight, the identity is completed: visual system, web, tone. It arrives before the market (F8), because traction is measured on a presentable promise.The sales materials · with the go-to-marketCommercial pitch, cases, pricing: the materials the channel repeats. They are born with traction and refined with product-market fit.The sale book · preparing liquidityThe outcome dossier: for M&A or public markets, it reassembles the startup's technical, commercial and corporate history.
Reading of the stretchIndicative monthsTechnical maturity (TRL)Commercial maturity (CRL)Cost of the project in the stretchMedian value of the startupRemaining riskDocuments of the stretchRounds in the stretchTypical fundingfrom {a} to {b}from {a} to {b}≈ {a} M€ · cumulative at exit ≈ {b} M€from {a} to {b} M€nonenoneWith the project type and the grant funding: the simulation of the cost of the services →F1 · Capture of the problem1 · hypothesis95%Volcano and partners; visionary angelsF2 · Analysis of the problem1 · hypothesis95%Volcano and partners; visionary angelsF3 · Ideation2 · market identified85%Tax Lease; grants; FFF; angelsF4 · Concept2 · market identified72%Tax Lease; grants; angelsF5 · Proof of concept3 · value proposition60%Tax Lease; grants; angelsF6 · Prototype3 · value proposition45%Tax Lease; angels; convertible; pre-seedF7 · MVP4 · model tested30%Tax Lease; convertible; seedF8 · Traction5 · pilot sales20%Seed / Series A; revenue-basedF9 · Product-market fit7 · unit economics14%Series AF10 · Profitable growth7 · unit economics8%Series A/B; venture debtF11 · Profitability8 · replicated8%Bank debt; growthF12 · Scale8 · replicated5%Growth equity; project financeF13 · Liquidity9 · bankable5%M&A; secondary; marketsmemoria técnicaex ante (ENAC)business modelbusiness planpatent applicationex post · month 12ex post · month 24ex post · month 36 (iT)minimum brandvisual identity · websales materialssale book0 · Discovery0 · Discovery1 · Concept and proof1 · Concept and proof1 · Concept and proof2 · Prototype and MVP2 · Prototype and MVP3 · Traction4 · Fit and revenue5 · Replication and profitability5 · Replication and profitability6 · Scale6 · Scale
you enter at F{e} · you exit at F{s} →median value among survivorsmedian value among survivors · expected per euro invested ≈ {x}; the expected = multiple × probability of reaching {p}% × dilution ×0.8 per round ({n}); without time → the risk map,
